Before I give you my Phillies postseason prediction — will they or won't they go all the way — I want to offer my bonafides as a Phillies watcher. I was there, I swear I was with my father, on the evening of September 21, 1964, when the Phillies suffered one of the most humiliating moments in baseball history. Because of the circumstances, it remains one of the most famous plays in baseball history; scoreless game, great hitter Frank Robinson at bat, Chico Ruiz, solid but unremarkable player on third base, and suddenly, instead of waiting for the reliable Robinson to deliver, Chico Ruiz takes off, elicits a wild pitch from Art Mahaffey, and the Reds go on to win the game 1-0. That launched a ten-game losing streak that kept the Phillies, who had been the odds-on favorite to win the National League pennant, out of the postseason.
So, with that as a backdrop, it's time to address these Phillies. These Phillies are not those Phillies. These Phillies are the opposite; resilient, adaptable, unafraid. They will not crack in the postseason, unless... unless they stop hitting.
There's a reason that baseball has always had a superstitious element to it. The Natural, Major League, Bull Durham, whatever, all have scenes where players are dealing with superstitions. Strange things happen in baseball, and they tend to happen collectively. Teams just stop hitting, like, say, last year's Phillies. It comes on quickly and almost before you know it, everybody from Bryce Harper through Brandon Marsh is swinging at balls ten feet outside of the strike zone.
So, yes, that could happen again. I don't know. I'm just saying I think these Phillies could go all the way for a variety of reasons.
#1: It's incredible they got this far, hanging onto first in the division — shout out to the Mets, by the way, who were lousy — after losing their ace Zack Wheeler in August. That's resilience.
#2: Trey Turner will be the Trey Turner they paid $300 million for. His rehab from a hamstring injury has gone apace, and I anticipate him having a great postseason.
#3: Kyle Schwarber. Whatever else might go off the rails in October, I have the feeling it won't be Schwarbs. He's had a magical year, beyond his 56 homers and his 3-homer binge in overtime to win the All-Star Game for the National League. And he'll have help. Schwarber and Bryce Harper have combined for 38 home runs in 510 career postseason plate appearances. They are two of the best playoff performers of their generation.
#4: Though ace reliever Jhoan Duran has been mortal lately (what reliever isn't except for Mariano Rivera) I thought from the beginning he was the winning piece the Phillies needed. That guy who strides in from the bullpen and is already psychologically ahead in the count. His mashup intro song — don't ask me to deconstruct it — comes close to Charlie Sheen matching in to "Wild Thing" in Major League.
#5: Along that same line, the crowd. Citizens Bank Park is the most ruckus place in baseball, and I don't see any of the National League playoff teams being the kind of powerhouse that can overcome that advantage; sometimes small, but sometimes large.
And finally, #6: More than in other years, I love the Phillies' bench, starting with Harrison Bader. They seem like real contributors rather than just fill-ins.
So, though I'm normally the guy who rains on parades, I see the Phils going all the way. But, just remember, I'm also the guy who watched Chico Ruiz steal home.
