With wintry weather and crowded airports, Thanksgiving travel can already be stressful. Now, add into the mix the possibility that the government shutdown could extend until then.
Tens of thousands of air traffic controllers and TSA agents have been required to work without pay. Recently, the Federal Aviation Administration said it has seen a surge in employee absences, forcing the agency to scale back the number of flights to maintain safety.
Delays related to staffing issues have popped up at airports nationwide in recent weeks, including in Orlando, Los Angeles, Houston and New York City. So far, most of these disruptions have been short-lived, but the Trump administration has warned that it may get significantly worse during the holiday season if the government remains closed.
On Wednesday, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said airline traffic will be reduced by 10% across 40 locations starting Friday amid staffing interruptions.
"I anticipate there will be additional disruptions, there will be frustration," he said. "But in the end, our sole role is to make sure that we keep this air space as safe as possible.
Aviation and travel experts similarly expect more delays and cancellations, along with longer TSA lines, if the shutdown does not end before Thanksgiving.
"It means that during one of the busiest times of the year, an awful lot of folks are gonna get stranded," said William J. McGee, a senior fellow for aviation and travel at the American Economic Liberties Project, an anti-monopoly group.
Here's how the shutdown might affect your holiday plans and whether you should travel at all.
What will air travel look like during Thanksgiving weekend if the shutdown continues?
Thanksgiving — and the days surrounding it — are among the busiest times for air travel. Last year, the Sunday after Thanksgiving set a record with nearly 3.09 million passengers screened by the TSA.
The last government shutdown also stretched through a holiday season, but Philip Mann, an aviation expert at Embry‑Riddle Aeronautical University, said a key difference was that in 2018, the shutdown began a few days before Christmas.
" People hadn't missed a whole paycheck," he said.
This year, by the time Thanksgiving rolls around, air traffic controllers and TSA agents will have been required to work without pay for more than eight weeks. If that's the case, Mann anticipates that more employees will call out of work due to fatigue and financial stress, triggering more delays and cancellations.
Part of the issue is that travel disruptions don't happen in a vacuum, according to McGee from the American Economic Liberties Project. Instead, they often create a domino effect, impacting other flights and airports.
" Delays and cancellations beget delays and cancellations," he said.
What if the shutdown ends before then?
Aviation experts say travel disruptions will likely remain a concern if the federal government reopens too close to Thanksgiving.
McGee said flight operations need time to stabilize if they experience a set of delays. That's because these days, flights tend to operate near capacity, leaving fewer available seats for passengers needing to rebook.
" That's why we have meltdowns that last, not a couple of hours, but sometimes a week," he said.
Another reason is that staffing shortages may persist after the shutdown since some air traffic controllers will need retraining before they return to duty, according to Mann.
" One of the huge things they do constantly is train and update on policies," he said.
Mann added that, how smoothly holiday travel goes will also depend on how well airports and airlines plan ahead.
To fly or not to fly this Thanksgiving?
Thanksgiving weekend tends to be one of the busiest times at airports because trips are packed into a few days — unlike in December or the summer when vacations can be spread out.
That also means, delays during Thanksgiving weekend can cut into an already short trip. Despite the risk, Katy Nastro, a travel expert from flight deals app Going, said she encourages people to keep their travel plans.
" I still would say that we are cautiously optimistic that you should still buy your flights," she said.
Nastro's advice is to not wait for the federal government to reopen before booking a flight. Instead, she recommended choosing tickets that offer flight credits in case plans need to change. She also suggested opting for a nonstop flight and choosing early departures.
Mann said travelers should also give themselves ample time for security checks, especially if the shutdown lasts through Thanksgiving.
Although travel disruptions remain a concern, Mann said ultimately, it's a good sign that the FAA is reducing flights in response to staffing shortages because it means the agency is putting safety first.
"Flying is gonna continue to be safe," he said. "It just might become increasingly inconvenient."
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