BERLIN — Last night, Friedrich Merz should have been on his way to New York to attend the United Nations General Assembly. Instead he was at his Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party's headquarters in Berlin from where he broke the stunned silence as exit polls for two state elections showed its worst result since World War II.
State elections for parliament seats, which in turn elect a government and a governor, were held in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and in the city of Berlin. In both places, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) made significant gains since the last state elections in 2021 and 2023, receiving 38.2% in the rural northeastern state and 16.3 % in the capital. In Berlin, the far-left Die Linke came in first with 25.7% of the vote, seven percentage points ahead of the CDU.
Receiving just 4.9% of the vote in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the CDU hasn't even cleared the threshold meant to keep fringe parties out of parliament. Merz quashed talk within the press and his own party about his possible resignation despite Sunday's losses for his party just two weeks after a crushing defeat in the state of Saxony-Anhalt.
Usually, the German federal chancellor does not comment so promptly on state election results, especially for two states with relatively small electorates. But his party's crushing defeat in both states is starting to reflect poorly on Merz.
Merz conceded that the night spells "disaster" for the political center, but assured the public he'd push ahead with his federal agenda of tax and welfare reforms, describing them as "the antidote to the poison of authoritarianism."
He stressed that implementing these reforms "require backbone, steadfastness and patience" and that he will "demonstrate this" as "chancellor of our country."
Speaking to public broadcaster ARD, federal leader of the far-right Alternative for Germany — or AfD — Alice Weidel said the more Merz digs in his heels, the more her party benefits.
"Friedrich Merz is the wrong chancellor for the CDU," Weidel said, "and he is dragging the party down with him."
The far-right AfD also beat Merz's coalition partner, the Social Democrats (SPD), in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
But the AfD is unlikely to find coalition partners willing to form a government so the incumbent SPD state governor, Manuela Schwesig — who came in second with 35% of the vote — is expected to find the allies she needs to remain in office.
In Berlin — which is both a city and a state whose mayor also serves as state governor — the far-left party, Die Linke, brought home its best ever result with a 25.7% share of the vote.
Its leader, Elif Eralp, pledged to make Berlin affordable again, drawing comparisons with New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani.
Taking to the stage as the results came in, Eralp said that Berliners will not tolerate the AfD's policies, adding "in our city, love and justice have triumphed over hate."
Eralp — whose parents fled Turkey after the coup d'etat in 1980 — pledges to introduce a rent cap and seize apartments owned by large corporate real estate developers.
But this second policy could prove contentious, even make-or-break as she enters into coalition negotiations this week.
Germany's electoral model is a combination of winner-take-all and proportional representation, meaning that parties need partners to form the parliamentary majority needed to govern.
For Eralp to take office as mayor, she needs to form a government with at least two other parties.
On a federal level, Merz - whose party co-governs with the Social Democrats — is finding that kind of consensus difficult with just one coalition partner.
Sudha David-Wilp of the think tank German Marshall Fund told NPR that despite talk of replacing him, Merz will counter any political reckoning by standing his ground.
"Merz himself has wanted to be chancellor for so long that he is probably loath to throw in the towel," David-Wilp said, "and he also knows the bar is very high to oust a chancellor in Germany."
But as an increasingly fragmented political landscape makes for unstable coalitions with parties blocking each other from implementing policy, the AfD tells the mainstream parties it's just waiting in the wings for the next federal election.
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