Democratic enthusiasm and President Trump's unpopular second term agenda have drastically altered the political landscape of competitive races two months out from Election Day.
Republicans hold narrow majorities in the House and the Senate, and the party in power tends to lose ground in the midterms. But 2026 primary results and public opinion polling heading into Labor Day weekend, the unofficial kickoff of the general election season, paint potential pictures of Republicans losing control of both chambers of Congress and suffering defeats in traditionally conservative communities.
Voters have expressed concern over major priorities of the Trump administration, such as the war in Iran and immigration, tariffs and gas prices and the overall affordability of American life. The president's approval ratings have sunk to record lows as polls also show voters see a disconnect between their top issues and what Trump seems to be focused on, like the White House ballroom construction project.
Democrats, fresh off of stinging losses in the 2024 election up and down the ballot, have rebounded with their voting base and independents unhappy with the status quo.
The looming campaign for control of Congress saw states controlled by Democrats and Republicans enact mid-decade redistricting in hopes of maximizing the number of safe seats for their party.
Still, polling averages — which are a snapshot in time — suggest the likeliest outcome is that Democrats take control of the House, as more voters say they would prefer to have a Democrat represent them in Congress than a Republican.
At the start of the year, Democrats' path to winning a Senate majority looked tenuous, as states like Georgia and North Carolina were just a few of the expensive tossup races expected in what is a favorable set of contests on the map for Republicans.
But now, the costly contests that will decide the next two years of Congress run through Republican-friendly Iowa, Texas, Ohio and Alaska — and control of the chamber is no longer a given for either party.
The national environment being more friendly to Democrats is boosted in these states by strong Democratic nominees who are raising large sums of money, plus, in some cases, the presence of third-party candidates who could earn enough votes from people who don't like either party to sway the outcome.
For now, the two main drivers of how the midterms unfold will be money and messaging.
On the money front, Democratic candidates are outraising their opponents in key races, while Republican party committees and Trump's MAGA, Inc. super PAC have hundreds of millions of dollars more saved up in the bank to spend. Some Republicans have questioned if and when MAGA, Inc. in particular will spend to support vulnerable candidates like Texas Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton. Over the weekend, the super PAC announced a $10 million ad buy to boost his campaign.
Speaking of Texas, Republicans are holding an unprecedented midterm convention in Dallas this week featuring several battleground nominees and members of the Trump administration in an effort to rally a flagging base and send a message to independents that they deserve two more years of Congressional control to make things better.
Democrats are trying to solve their own messaging woes while also facing record unpopularity driven by their own base voters' dissatisfaction with party leadership. Since Trump's return to office, Democrats have seen drastic improvements in their margins with voters across the country and across demographic groups, including commanding victories in the Virginia and New Jersey governor races in 2025.
Primary voters have ousted several entrenched incumbents while others have voluntarily announced their retirement from Congress, and in several key House and Senate races this year, the Democratic nominee's message is built at least in part on acknowledging flaws with the party.
Copyright 2026 NPR
